Economists give grim county forecast through 2010
Ventura County should narrowly avoid recession, UCSB researchers say
By Hannah Guzik 02/28/2008
Ventura County will continue to face the fallout from last year’s economic downturn, according to a recently released report from the University of California, Santa Barbara.
Economic forecaster Dr. Bill Watkins, executive director of the UCSB Economic Forecast Project, said unemployment will rise and home prices will continue to plummet from Ventura to Thousand Oaks through 2010, mirroring economic trends nationwide.
“What’s going on right now is just panic in the streets, particularly the streets of Wall Street,” Watkins said during a presentation of the Ventura County data at Cal Lutheran University on Feb. 21.
“I think essentially what we’ve seen here is a run on the banks.”
Watkins said investor and consumer anxiety has contributed to the economic slump in Ventura County.
However, the county should narrowly avoid a recession, said Kirk Lesh, a real estate economist with the economic forecast project.
“We don’t believe Ventura County is headed for recession,” Lesh said. “But if we’re wrong, it could make this a lot worse.”
The economic troubles of Thousand Oaks-based Amgen and Countrywide, based in Calabasas, could significantly affect the East County economy, according to the study.
Also residential home prices and sales will continue to decrease until the county burns through its large new home inventory, Lesh said.
“Clearly the real estate market is in a tremendous amount of turmoil,” he said. “Buyers are sitting this out. They’re on the sidelines. They’re waiting for things to get even worse.”
Author and economic futurist Joel Kotkin said Ventura County and other similar counties will become more like Los Angeles in the next 20 to 30 years.
“The distinctions between cities and suburbs are beginning to erode,” he said, citing L.A. as the premier example of the new-urban era.
“The model of L.A. is the dominant model and is the way other cities are going to go. Many people think this is the anti-city. They think that this is what we should get away from, but the reality is that this is where we’re going.”
He said this shift toward multi-polarity cities is happening because of increased population growth, advances in transportation technology and an increasing need for social sustainability.
After listening to the economic forecast, CLU seniors Greg Young, an economic management major, and Marius Bjerkan, a business administration major, came away from the meeting with different perspectives.
“I feel that this meeting supported everything I’ve been hearing in the news that there’s not really going to be a recession. Things are slowing, but there’s no real fear that we’re in a recession,” said Young.
“I think the U.S. is in a recession, and there’s going to be higher unemployment. But I think in a few years it’s going to be better,” Bjerkan said.
Because of the economic prospects, neither student plans to try to find a job in Ventura County after graduation: Young is going to graduate school and Bjerkan is moving back to his native Norway to start his career.
Economic forecaster Dr. Bill Watkins, executive director of the UCSB Economic Forecast Project, said unemployment will rise and home prices will continue to plummet from Ventura to Thousand Oaks through 2010, mirroring economic trends nationwide.
“What’s going on right now is just panic in the streets, particularly the streets of Wall Street,” Watkins said during a presentation of the Ventura County data at Cal Lutheran University on Feb. 21.
“I think essentially what we’ve seen here is a run on the banks.”
Watkins said investor and consumer anxiety has contributed to the economic slump in Ventura County.
However, the county should narrowly avoid a recession, said Kirk Lesh, a real estate economist with the economic forecast project.
“We don’t believe Ventura County is headed for recession,” Lesh said. “But if we’re wrong, it could make this a lot worse.”
The economic troubles of Thousand Oaks-based Amgen and Countrywide, based in Calabasas, could significantly affect the East County economy, according to the study.
Also residential home prices and sales will continue to decrease until the county burns through its large new home inventory, Lesh said.
“Clearly the real estate market is in a tremendous amount of turmoil,” he said. “Buyers are sitting this out. They’re on the sidelines. They’re waiting for things to get even worse.”
Author and economic futurist Joel Kotkin said Ventura County and other similar counties will become more like Los Angeles in the next 20 to 30 years.
“The distinctions between cities and suburbs are beginning to erode,” he said, citing L.A. as the premier example of the new-urban era.
“The model of L.A. is the dominant model and is the way other cities are going to go. Many people think this is the anti-city. They think that this is what we should get away from, but the reality is that this is where we’re going.”
He said this shift toward multi-polarity cities is happening because of increased population growth, advances in transportation technology and an increasing need for social sustainability.
After listening to the economic forecast, CLU seniors Greg Young, an economic management major, and Marius Bjerkan, a business administration major, came away from the meeting with different perspectives.
“I feel that this meeting supported everything I’ve been hearing in the news that there’s not really going to be a recession. Things are slowing, but there’s no real fear that we’re in a recession,” said Young.
“I think the U.S. is in a recession, and there’s going to be higher unemployment. But I think in a few years it’s going to be better,” Bjerkan said.
Because of the economic prospects, neither student plans to try to find a job in Ventura County after graduation: Young is going to graduate school and Bjerkan is moving back to his native Norway to start his career.
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